Tunisia Between the Abyss and Salvation

Tunisia Between the Abyss and Salvation: Was the Harsh Lesson a Path to National Reconciliation?

In politics, no ruler—whether president or king—governs alone. Power is always surrounded by multiple forces that protect, monitor, and sometimes even control it. In advanced countries, if these forces are legal and transparent, they’re known as the “safety valve.” But if they are secretive and above accountability, they are called the “deep state” in developing nations.

Between the deep state and the safety valve, the nature of regimes is defined, the destinies of peoples are shaped, and the battles between tyranny and freedom are managed. At the heart of this struggle lies Tunisia… swinging for years between the dream of salvation and the nightmare of collapse.

Who Really Governs in Nations?

No president or king rules alone. Every ruler, no matter how powerful, is kept in place by a specific elite—who also hold the power to remove him whenever they wish. In democratic systems, this elite is public and legitimate. In authoritarian regimes, it is hidden and above the law.

In developed countries, the interests of this elite are directly tied to the state’s stability and citizens’ welfare. But in underdeveloped countries, their interests are entangled with the ruler himself—linked to his survival or downfall, even if that means destroying the country.

The Deep State: A Shadow Network

In underdeveloped regimes, the deep state is made up of powerful individuals within state institutions, most notably:

• The military and security apparatus

• Intelligence services

• Politically aligned judiciary

• Major business figures

• Submissive media outlets

These forces do not operate under the rule of law, but in the shadows. They control the political scene, appoint and remove rulers, and reshape political life to serve their own interests.

Key traits of the deep state:

• Operates covertly: It moves behind the scenes, though everyone knows it exists.

• Self-serving: Prioritizes its own interests—even at the country’s expense.

• Political influence: Uses pressure, threats, or crises to manipulate decisions.

• Media manipulation: Controls public opinion through disinformation and narrative steering.

• Suppresses opposition: Fabricates charges to silence dissent.

• Blocks reforms: Opposes any change that threatens its grip.

• Coordinates with foreign powers to safeguard its position.

The Safety Valve: The True Guardian of the State

By contrast, developed nations have a mechanism called the “safety valve.”
It’s not a secret group or a repressive security body, but a transparent institutional network with one goal: to protect the state from collapse—not to shield the ruler from the people.

Components of the safety valve:

• An independent judiciary: Upholds justice and prevents oppression.

• Professional security institutions: Preserve order without suppressing opposition.

• A clear constitution and stable laws: Balance power and protect rights.

• A free press: Exposes corruption and monitors authority.

• A vibrant civil society: Acts as a bridge between the state and citizens.

• A productive, independent economy: Reduces crises and boosts stability.

• Functional political dialogue: Prevents social explosions and safeguards civil peace.

In this setup, institutions aren’t tools in the ruler’s hand—they’re the guarantors of state continuity, whether the ruler stays or goes.

Safety Valve or Deep State: Who Rules Tunisia?

In Tunisia’s case, what is figuratively called a “safety valve” is in fact a deep state in legal disguise.
Security, intelligence, and military forces—armed with weapons and information—control the state from behind the scenes.

These forces still steer the country’s direction, despite the revolution. They switch out figureheads as needed and reshape the political scene to fit their interests.

When Ben Ali fell, it wasn’t just a “popular revolution.” It was also because the deep state abandoned him—on foreign instruction.
Then they handed power to the Islamists in a clear deal—on the condition that the presidency remained untouched.
And when the Islamists were no longer useful, they pushed Kais Saied to the forefront, fully supported by these same forces.

Kais Saied: The New Face of the Deep State Project

Kais Saied was elected in 2019 with support from the Islamists themselves—due to their political ignorance and strategic naïveté.
But they didn’t know the safety valve had already decided:

• To hand him the presidency

• To let him rewrite the constitution

• To prepare the scene for a full institutional coup

And so it happened. A new project began: the systematic dismantling of what was left of political and civil life in Tunisia.

The Real Mission of Kais Saied: Systematic Demolition

The safety valve didn’t elevate Kais Saied out of love or in obedience to popular will. He was simply the right man for a specific mission:

• Block migration to Europe—at all costs

• Turn Tunisia into a buffer zone without sovereignty, used for mass deportations

• Completely destroy political and civil life

• Create a climate of fear and surrender, and dismantle the state from within

He was allowed to:

• Overthrow parliament

• Jail opposition figures

• Muzzle the media

• Freeze political parties

• Strangle civil associations

• Undermine the judiciary

He even managed to wreck Tunisia’s image abroad.

Who Really Governs Tunisia Today?

The Tunisian safety valve—comprising senior officers, security heads, and intelligence leaders—is the true power holder.
Kais Saied is merely the façade, executing orders in exchange for ongoing support and protection.

These forces:

• Know all internal and external details

• Balance foreign directives with their internal interests

• Are simply waiting for the right moment to discard Saied… once his role is complete

Why Doesn’t the Safety Valve Care About the People’s Will?

The answer is simple:
In weak nations, the people pose no real threat—so long as they’re scattered, politically unaware, and moved by religious or nationalist emotions.
In such cases, the deep state prefers to please global powers rather than its own citizens, because its survival depends more on external approval than internal support.

The weak seek survival…
The strong seek dominance.
This is the rule guiding the safety valve’s behavior in the Global South.

Tunisia Is Boiling from Within… And the Breaking Point Is Near

All signs indicate that the current situation cannot continue:

• The economy is collapsing

• Services are broken

• Corruption is rampant

• Security is fragile

• Freedoms are gone

• Public anger is rising

These ingredients signal an impending explosion—one the deep state may no longer be able to contain.

The safety valve is already looking for a replacement for Kais Saied—but in a way that won’t expose the project or open the door to chaos.
It needs:

• The right timing

• A replacement acceptable to the international community

• A new narrative marketed as “national salvation”

The Tunisian Elite’s Chance: A Civilized National Charter

This is where the responsibility of the elite—civil society, political figures, and real intellectuals—comes in.
Now is the chance to build a unified national civil front as a democratic alternative.

But that won’t happen unless:

• All ideological and personal disputes are set aside

• A unified, humane, civic national charter is formed

• A real political project is presented—one that convinces the people and forces the deep state to let go of Kais Saied

The Coming Revolution: A Revolution of Minds

The next revolution in Tunisia will not be one of hunger alone—it will be a revolution of awareness and thought.
The revolution that can save the country won’t succeed through slogans—but with a fresh vision that moves past the past decade:

• No democracy without strong institutions

• No freedom without an aware society

• No prosperity without an independent economy

• And no salvation without a collective will that transcends instincts and narrow loyalties

As Aboul-Qacem Echebbi once said:

“If the people someday will to live, then fate must surely respond.”

Yes—fate responds when the will is grounded in awareness, not emotion.

Conclusion: Tunisia Before 2030… Where to?

All signs suggest Tunisia is at a critical crossroads.
Either:

• Further descent into dictatorship and total collapse,
  Or:

• A return to a rational, civilized path—led by a new elite that forces the safety valve to retreat.

The opportunity is there, and early signs are emerging.
What matters now is that the elite break their silence, and that a national project be forged—this time not just to topple a regime, but to build a real state worthy of Tunisia and its people.

Long live Tunisia,
And long live every free, civilized, humane, and progressive human being.