Focal Points of Conflict and Global Changes – The European-Russian War?

Focal Points of Conflict and Global Changes – The European-Russian War?

There is a fundamental principle that states: what is happening now is the direct result of what has happened before; therefore, current events allow us to anticipate what might occur in the future. By applying this principle, we can analyze political developments and forecast future scenarios.

However, we must always keep three crucial factors in mind that could influence these predictions:

• Sudden events or “mutations”: Major incidents that directly impact the current reality, accelerating or altering its course. Examples include the events of October 7 or September 11.

• Hidden events: Developments that do not reach the media but play a significant role in shaping the direction of events.

• Uncalculated factors: Such as natural disasters or unforeseen outcomes that could drastically shift the course of events, accelerate them, or even turn them completely upside down.

Through this lens, I analyze political events and attempt to foresee what might unfold. What I say is not necessarily 100% accurate; however, when reviewing my previous predictions, one finds that a significant proportion has already materialized.

For instance, when I previously stated that a third world war could not happen, I meant that the world today — and tomorrow — simply cannot afford such a war. I also stressed that a large-scale regional war was unlikely to erupt anywhere globally. Moreover, I asserted that any reasons leading to war would be addressed and contained, leaving no room for escalation. And even if motives for war existed, they would be swiftly contained.

Today, this trend is becoming increasingly evident: military wars are set to disappear entirely in the coming years. What I mean here is conventional military wars. Political, economic, intellectual, technological, and other forms of non-military conflicts will continue to exist.

Key Global Conflict Zones

Among the major conflict hotspots that must be resolved before the end of this year or early next year, three main regions stand out: Africa, Europe, and Asia.

In Europe, there is a single primary conflict zone. In this article, we will focus solely on the European front, leaving the others for upcoming discussions. The focus on Europe stems from the fact that this conflict is nearing resolution. Efforts have been underway for over a month to bring this war to an end and to address its root causes in a way that prevents its recurrence in the future.

The European-Russian Conflict: Historical and Geopolitical Dimensions

As is well known, Russia remains the only organized military threat to Europe, for clear and well-established reasons. Despite the fact that most of Russian territory lies in Asia, Russia shares a direct geographic connection with Europe, and its ambitions toward the continent are far from new — just as European ambitions toward Russia have existed for centuries.

This historic rivalry resembles, in many ways, the conflict between Jews and Arabs, where each side perceives itself as having a historical right to dominate the other.

The Historical Background of the European-Russian Conflict

The rivalry between Europe and Russia dates back centuries. The peoples known as the Eastern Slavs—including Caucasians, Uralics, Turkmens, and others—have long sought to impose their dominance over the European Aryan peoples. Conversely, the Aryan peoples of Europe also aspired to dominate the Slavs.

Had these two blocs succeeded in ending their conflict and uniting their forces, they would have formed the greatest global power, one that no other force could confront or overcome.

Slavic Migration and Its Impact on Europe

Prior to the establishment of the Russian Tsarist Empire, Europe witnessed a massive wave of Slavic migration toward its eastern regions, driven by climatic, economic, and demographic factors. This migration significantly altered the ethnic composition of Europe, with the Slavs establishing a strong presence in the East.

The Slavs’ success in consolidating their presence in Eastern Europe was due to two main factors:

• Their large population numbers, which enabled them to assert themselves.

• The relative weakness of Europe at the time—demographically and economically—which allowed the Slavs to settle and expand.

The Slavs also played a strategic role as a buffer against the Persian and Islamic threats advancing from the East—threats that were considered by Europeans to be more severe than the Slavic presence, given the deep cultural and religious differences between Europeans, Persians, and Muslims.

However, with the rise of the Tsarist Empire, Russia emerged as a major power with growing influence in Eastern Europe. This pushed Europeans to seek alternative geographic spaces for expansion, leading to the massive migrations toward the Americas and Australia.

Major Shifts: From the Ottomans to the Soviets

After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the primary threat to Europe shifted toward Soviet Russia, which became the most formidable force facing the continent. This situation changed again with the rise of Nazi Germany under Hitler, making Germany the number one enemy of both Europe and Russia.

When Hitler launched his war against the Soviet Union, the world witnessed an unexpected alliance between Europe and Russia against Nazism. Yet this alliance was merely a temporary truce; tensions between the West and Russia resurfaced immediately after the end of World War II, ushering in a new phase of conflict during the Cold War.

The Current Scene and the Future of the Conflict

Today, Russia continues to represent the greatest military threat to Europe. Nevertheless, global dynamics are shifting toward ending military wars and transitioning into new forms of conflict—political, economic, and technological.

Work is currently underway to end the war in Europe, with clear political and military movements indicating that a resolution is near. The objective is not just to halt the fighting, but to address the underlying causes and ensure that similar conflicts do not arise again in the future.

In upcoming videos, we will explore other hotspots in Africa and Asia and discuss how international powers are managing these challenges.

The End of World War II and the Start of the Cold War

World War II ended with the fall of Nazi Germany, followed by an agreement between Europeans, Americans, and Russians. This agreement stipulated that Eastern Europe, including part of East Germany, would come under Soviet influence, while Western Europe and most of Germany would fall under the control of Western Europe and the United States. Thus began what came to be known as the Cold War, which lasted until the collapse of the Soviet Union.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia lost many geographic areas in both Asia and Europe, areas that subsequently became independent nations. Some of these new states remained loyal to the new Russia, particularly those located in Asia, while others moved closer to Europe and eventually joined the European Union. The countries situated along the Russian-European border remained internally divided: parts of their populations favored alignment with Russia, while others sought to distance themselves and move closer to the West.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was not a coincidence. The Cold War had been waged on multiple fronts: intelligence operations, economic competition, technological races, and indirect military confrontations. Some of the most important battlefields included Afghanistan and the Caucasus, along with Iran—which was a strong ally of the West before falling into the hands of Islamist forces—and Turkey, which remained linked to the West. Yet, the “Afghan trap” proved to be the decisive and fastest factor in the Soviet collapse, compounded by economic stagnation and technological backwardness, which ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s downfall.

The Soviet Union officially ceased to exist on December 26, 1991, following Mikhail Gorbachev’s resignation on December 25, 1991. However, the real collapse had begun in the late 1980s, driven by Gorbachev’s reforms—Perestroika (restructuring) and Glasnost (openness)—as well as the rise of independence movements within the Soviet republics.

The decisive event that marked the actual end of the Soviet Union was the signing of the Belavezha Accords on December 8, 1991, in which the dissolution of the Soviet Union was formally announced and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was established.

Russia’s Goals After the Fall of the Soviet Union and Key Leaders

Russia’s primary goal in dissolving the Soviet Union was to escape the economic and military crises it was facing and to salvage what remained of the Russian empire after the failure of the communist system and the West’s economic, military, and technological superiority. By allowing the independence of the Asian and Eastern European republics, Russia hoped to demonstrate goodwill toward the West by adopting democracy and a Western-style economic and political system.

The key figures who led Russia during this transitional phase were:

• Mikhail Gorbachev (1985–1991): The last Soviet leader, who became General Secretary of the Communist Party in 1985 and President of the Soviet Union in 1990, resigning on December 25, 1991.

• Boris Yeltsin (1991–1999): The first President of the Russian Federation after the Soviet Union’s collapse, holding office until his resignation on December 31, 1999.

• Vladimir Putin (1999–2008): Initially serving as acting president after Yeltsin’s resignation, Putin officially became president in 2000. He later left office temporarily for Dmitry Medvedev (2008–2012) before returning to power in 2012 and remaining in office to this day.

Gorbachev was fully aligned with the West and was prepared to make major concessions to gain Western approval. As mentioned, he resigned voluntarily, paving the way for Boris Yeltsin, who later resigned on December 31, 1999, after his health deteriorated and his popularity collapsed. Yeltsin’s presidency was marked by major issues, including rampant corruption and chaotic privatization, which led to Russia’s economic collapse and the massive 1998 financial crisis—causing widespread public disillusionment.

However, Yeltsin’s resignation was also a strategic move: before stepping down, he had appointed Vladimir Putin as Prime Minister in August 1999, ensuring a smooth transition of power. Putin assumed the presidency temporarily before winning the 2000 election outright.

The Rise of Vladimir Putin and the Rebuilding of Russia

It was from this point that Vladimir Putin emerged, tasked with the fundamental mission of restoring Russia’s stature and power on the international stage.

Putin does not seek to invade Europe nor does he harbor expansionist ambitions there. Rather, his goal is to reestablish Russia’s global standing and to protect its security and strategic interests. His primary objective is for Russia to become a full partner to the West—similar to Canada or Australia—not merely a subordinate state like Japan or South Korea.

For this reason, Putin repeatedly warned the West against encroaching upon Eastern European countries bordering Russia, especially regarding Finland’s potential membership in NATO, given its direct border with Russia. He also warned against Western interference in Russia’s internal affairs and attempts to infringe upon its vital sphere of influence.

Despite these repeated warnings, the West continued to sideline Russia, excluding it from major international forums, economic agreements, and political negotiations, while systematically preventing it from participating in resolving crises across the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. This deliberate exclusion fueled Russia’s resentment and pushed it to reassert itself by intervening more directly in Africa and Asia, and by forging strong alliances with nations and groups considered adversarial or rival to the West.

Additionally, the West intensified its efforts to draw Ukraine into its sphere of influence, even though a significant portion of the Ukrainian population preferred to maintain strong ties with Russia due to shared ethnic, cultural, and linguistic bonds. In response, pro-Russian Ukrainians appealed to Moscow for protection, leading Russia to annex Crimea and later to support the accession of three other Ukrainian provinces seeking to join Russia.

These events, however, did not deter the West, which continued its confrontational stance toward Russia, offering full political, military, and economic support to Ukraine—thus leaving Russia with no option but to launch a direct military operation against Ukraine. Moscow viewed this step as necessary to send a clear message that the West had crossed all red lines and that Russia would not accept further marginalization or threats.

Western Support for Ukraine and Russia’s Position

The West, led by the United States, provided Ukraine with unlimited support. Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in an election that Russia considered fraudulent, while the West affirmed its legitimacy, viewing Zelensky as fully aligned with Western interests and tasked with one clear mission: to defeat Russia. A Western victory in Ukraine would symbolize the final collapse of Russia as a major power, just as had happened to the Soviet Union before.

Thus, this war represents one of the most dangerous confrontations possible between two nuclear-armed powers, raising fears that it could escalate into a regional war or even a third world war—an outcome that neither side desires and that the world cannot afford.

In reality, Russia possesses the full military capability to occupy all of Ukraine within a few days, despite the West’s unlimited support for Kyiv. However, Russia has chosen not to pursue total occupation. Its aim is not the conquest of Ukraine but rather to send a clear message to the West: Russia does not seek territorial expansion at Europe’s expense but merely demands to safeguard its own security and sovereignty as a global power.

While the Russian-Ukrainian war can be said to have effectively begun in 2014, it escalated into a full-scale, formal war in February 2022 when Russian forces crossed into Ukrainian territory and war was officially declared. Since then, millions of Ukrainians—mainly women and children—have fled to Europe, while the majority of men remained behind to fight the Russians with virtually unlimited Western military and financial support.

Meanwhile, Zelensky has demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice all of Ukraine to maintain his allegiance to the West, showing extreme hostility toward Russia—something that has become increasingly apparent to the world.

Russia’s Refusal to Lose and the New U.S. Strategy to End the War

Russia simply cannot accept defeat, no matter how long and exhausting the war may become. After this prolonged and draining conflict, and with the arrival of a new president in the White House, the United States decided to halt this war—and all global conflicts—beginning with the Russian-Ukrainian war. Washington has proposed several negotiation options to both Moscow and Kyiv, recognizing that neither side has many viable alternatives left and that continuing the war is no longer an acceptable option for the new U.S. administration.

However, Europe still wants to continue the war, as it suffers minimal direct losses. Even the financial and military aid it provides to Ukraine is offset by gains extracted from Ukrainian resources, while Ukrainians themselves fight on behalf of Europe in an effort to defeat Russia. For these reasons, Europe is reluctant to end the war except under its own conditions, the most important of which are:

• Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, and potentially to NATO in the future;

• The full withdrawal of Russian forces from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Donbas and Crimea;

• Long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

From Russia’s perspective, these conditions are completely unacceptable. Russia categorically rejects any scenario involving Ukraine joining NATO or relinquishing Crimea.

Zelensky fully supports the European position, even if it means the total destruction of Ukraine. However, the new American administration opposes this maximalist European approach, seeing it as incompatible with any viable peace settlement with Russia. Washington’s priority is now to end the war swiftly, not escalate it further.

The Proposed Solutions to End the Ukrainian War

The European Solution:

• Continued military and financial support for Ukraine until Russia is forced to negotiate under European terms;

• Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and possibly NATO in the future;

• Full Russian withdrawal from all occupied territories, including Crimea;

• Long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

➤ Russia’s Position: Moscow considers these demands impossible and non-negotiable.

The Russian Solution:

• Recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Donbas, and any other territories currently under its control;

• Guarantee that Ukraine remains a militarily neutral state with partial disarmament;

• Lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Russia;

• Guarantees that NATO will not expand eastward or deploy Western weapons near Russian borders.

➤ The West’s Position: The West categorically rejects this proposal.

The American Solution (A Middle Ground Settlement):

• Immediate ceasefire and the start of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine under international supervision;

• Partial or full Russian withdrawal from certain areas, while postponing the final resolution of Crimea and Donbas;

• Declaration of Ukraine as a militarily neutral state, accompanied by strong Western security guarantees;

• Gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia depending on its compliance with the agreement;

• Substantial financial aid to rebuild Ukraine.

➤ The New U.S. Administration’s Position: It favors this solution to end the war quickly, but faces resistance from Zelensky and certain European countries.

Conclusion: How Will the War End?

Ultimately, the war will be resolved through a political compromise that includes:

• Declaring Ukraine a neutral state under international security guarantees;

• Partial or full Russian withdrawal from territories occupied since 2022;

• Postponing the final settlement regarding Crimea and Donbas for a later stage;

• Gradual lifting of sanctions on Russia;

• An international effort to rebuild Ukraine through substantial financial assistance.

This solution may not be ideal for any of the parties involved, but it will achieve peace and stability, prevent the conflict from escalating into a broader war, and restore balance to international relations.